2026 World Cup Golden Boot tracker: Will Messi or Mbappé score the most goals? - ESPN

After 102 games, the World Cup Golden Boot comes down to two predictable names: Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé.

The pair were the top two scorers at the last World Cup — Mbappé pipped Messi to the Golden Boot with a hat trick in the 2022 final — and it's a similar story this time round.

Entering this year's final (Spain vs. Argentina) and the third-place playoff (France vs. England), Messi and Mbappé are tied on eight goals, although Messi has one more assist (four), meaning he would win the tiebreaker.

(Note: FIFA's rules state that if two players are tied on most goals, then their assist total will be used as a decider. If the assist totals are also the same, then the player who has played fewer minutes at the tournament will be ranked first)

But who will win the Golden Boot? Here's an argument for and against for each.

Goals: 8
Assists: 3
Games: 7

Why he will win it: Mbappé's World Cup may be over, but he could still score in the third-place playoff vs. England, which would aid him. Remember: goals in the third-place playoff still count. The last time England played in such a game, they lost 2-0 to Belgium in 2018 in a performance lacking in spirit. If the same happens this time, Mbappé could yet get ahead of Messi in the Golden Boot race.

Why he won't: France could always rotate for the third-place game. England did in 2018 — manager Gareth Southgate still opted to start striker Harry Kane, but he otherwise fielded some lesser-used players. If France boss Didier Deschamps does the same and rests Mbappé, then the Golden Boot will be Messi's.

Goals: 8
Assists: 4
Games: 6

Why he will win it: Messi may not need to do anything to secure the Golden Boot award, which he is yet to win in his career. Messi's two assists in