2026 NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections, chances - ESPN

The 2026 NFL season is underway, and while it's still very early, we're already starting to track the playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LXI. Which teams have the best chances to make the 14-team postseason field? Which have a lot of work to do to ultimately get in?

We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl in February. Plus, we also have the FPI's projections for every game on the upcoming slate and how a win — or a loss — might impact each team's playoff chances, independent of other results.

Here's everything you need to know about the playoff picture right now.

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AFC picture | NFC picture
Game stakes

Jan. 16-18, 2027: Wild-card round
Jan. 23-24: Divisional round
Jan. 31: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 14: Super Bowl LXI (in Los Angeles)