2026 NFL draft: Five-team race for No. 1 pick, top prospects - ESPN

The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is solidifying after 15 weeks of the 2025 season. Only five teams have at least a 1% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projections. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises again after taking a look at midseason.

Our NFL Nation reporters looked at what went wrong for each team to get them in this position. Seth Walder used FPI to make sense of each teams' chances in their final three games. Dan Graziano rated each team's likelihood of trading the No. 1 pick on a 1-10 scale. And finally, Jordan Reid spun it forward and suggested one prospect each front office could consider if it kept the top selection.

Let's start with the Raiders, who currently have the best odds at the first pick.

Jump to a team:
CLE | LV | NYG | NYJ | TEN

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 37.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 92.7%

What was the biggest problem this season?

Las Vegas has been a complete mess on offense. Since firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders have scored only 31 points in three games. They totaled 75 yards in a 31-0 loss to the Eagles this past Sunday. Quarterback Geno Smith has regressed over the course of the season, and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has been underwhelming. The offensive line's inability to hold protection or create space hasn't helped either player. The Raiders are currently 22nd in pass block win rate (61.0%) and tied for 18th in run block win rate (70.6%). — Ryan McFadden

What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?

They aren't favored in any games but don't make the mistake of thinking that the Raiders have the