2026 NFL draft: Breaking down the top 10 by the odds - ESPN

Odds on the NFL draft can be quite volatile, but the betting market is about as certain as it can be about who is going No. 1. Former Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who led the Hoosiers to their first national championship in program history, is -20000 to be taken with the first pick.

The rest of the top 10? That's a little dicey. Ohio State Edge/LB Arvell Reese is the favorite to go No. 2 ahead of Texas Tech DE David Bailey, who has the shortest odds to go third after some back-and-forth with Reese. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love has now moved up all the way up to the favorite to go No. 4.

The order might not play out exactly as the odds say, but they still tell a story about what the betting public believes will take place Thursday. Also worth keeping in mind is that the New York Jets (2, 16), New York Giants (5, 10), Cleveland Browns (6, 24), Kansas City Chiefs (9, 29), Miami Dolphins (11, 30) and Dallas Cowboys (12, 20) all have multiple picks in the first round. Trades will happen.

Here's what the betting market tells us about what could happen with the first 10 picks of the NFL draft.

Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

The Heisman Trophy winner is a massive favorite (99.5% implied probability) to be selected No. 1 in the NFL draft. At this number, bettors would need to risk $2,000 to win $10. Cam Ward had the same odds to be the first pick last year, and Caleb Williams also had these odds the year before. Both went No. 1.

Odds have ping-ponged between Reese and Texas Tech DE David Bailey over the last few weeks leading up to the draft. Just over a week ago, Bailey was the odds-on favorite at -140 to go in this spot. That distinction now shifts back to Reese, who was favored to go