2026 Kentucky Derby: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Picks, Best Bets

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

Every year, sports fans shift their attention to Louisville on the first Saturday in May for the Kentucky Derby. 

There’s just something incredibly special about the event, dubbed "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports." 

This is the 152nd "Run for the Roses," and regardless of whether you indulge in a few Mint Juleps, there is fun to be had for all — particularly when it comes to laying a few wagers. 

So, let's jump into the action.

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1. Renegade: 4/1 (bet $10 to win $50 total)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

I’m in a strange spot with the Derby favorite. I have a nice future ticket on him and now that the race is here, I don’t plan on using him in the winning spot on any other tickets. So if he wins, great. If my handicapping here is correct, and he’s a non-factor, that’s great too. He’s won both of his races as a 3-year-old. However, the reports of sore feet do not inspire a lot of confidence. Neither does the rail draw, for which I have some stats further down in the column. While it's true being a closer does mitigate some of the concerns with the rail, the fact is this horse might not be fast enough. His winning figures in the Arkansas Derby and Sam F Davis are below what Chief Wallabee, Further Ado and Commandment are running. Remember too, it's not like trainer Todd Pletcher has had a ton of success here either — more on that further in this column, too. While it is also true Irad Ortiz Jr. probably had his choice of mounts in this race