2025 NFL draft order projections: Panthers, Giants at top - ESPN

Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is officially over, and it's never too early to start thinking about the 2025 draft, which begins on April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. So let's take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 20,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team's average draft position in the simulations.

Our preseason FPI predictions gave the New England Patriots the best chances of securing the first pick, but there has been a shift at the top of the projected board. Who's the new No. 1 after the start of the regular season? Which teams could land a top-five pick? Check out our full projections below, and check back every Tuesday for updates throughout the season.

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Average draft position: 4.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 27.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 70.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 88.2%

Average draft position: 6.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 15.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 54.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 79.1%

Average draft position: 7.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 50.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 75.5%

Average draft position: 9.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 38.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 64.1%

Average draft position: 10.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 33.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10