2025 NASCAR Playoff Picture: Who's In, Who's Nervous, Who's Got To Win

As the regular season winds down and drivers make a run to land a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, those outside the cutline are looking for wins.

A win guarantees a spot in the playoffs unless there are more winners than spots available. The 16 spots go to the regular-season champion and then 15 drivers based on wins with tiebreakers by points.

Right now, there have been 12 winners and the regular-season champion will most likely be a driver who has won a race. So unless there are five new winners (or four new winners and winless Tyler Reddick makes up a 53-point deficit to win the regular-season title), everyone with a win will get in.

The six races remaining in the regular season: Dover (1-mile concrete oval), Indianapolis (2.5-mile flat oval), Iowa (0.875-mile oval), Watkins Glen (road course), Richmond (0.75-mile oval) and Daytona (2.5-mile drafting oval).

Of these tracks, the most likely places for upset winners are Watkins Glen, Richmond and Daytona. So likely at most there will be three new winners. Here’s a breakdown of who’s in and who’s on the bubble when it comes to points and who needs a win.

Guaranteed Spots

Drivers with multiple wins, locked into the playoffs: All these drivers have three wins — Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Shane van Gisbergen.

Have A Win, No Worries

These drivers might not be mathematically locked in yet with one win, but they are not in danger of being the odd driver out if there are more winners than spots: William Byron, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano.

Chase Elliott has all but assured himself a spot in this year's playoffs.

Have A Win, Tiny Worry

These drivers might have to battle it out on points if they