2025 Heisman Trophy betting preview - ESPN

With Week 0 of the college football season fast approaching, is it too early to make a Heisman Trophy prediction?

Last season, I waited and took Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty to win the the award at 35-1 ahead of Week 1, and then I bet on Travis Hunter to win at 30-1 in Week 2. This year, it's smart to take the same measured approach. The Heisman market is still settling, but three players deserve our attention ahead of the 2025 season.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning enters the 2025 season as a +600 favorite, with Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik and LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier just behind him at +900.

Manning is an enticing name for the recreational bettor, but history and context make taking a chance on him more sizzle than steak. He has an elite background, an NFL frame, dual-threat ability and complete grasp of the offense for a team favored to win the SEC title. Steve Sarkisian's system is QB-friendly, and the Longhorns' schedule offers plenty of Heisman statement games, including the season opener against Ohio State in Columbus. The narrative of Arch becoming the first Manning to win the Heisman Trophy is also media gold. Add in a relatively open field, and it's easy to understand why the public wants this ticket.

But the concerns around Manning are hard to ignore. He has only 95 career pass attempts and two starts on his résumé, making him an extreme statistical outlier for a preseason favorite. According to ESPN Research, only one preseason Heisman favorite has won the trophy in the past 16 years (Marcus Mariota in 2014).

Though first-year starters have succeeded before (Bryce Young in 2021 and Kyler Murray in 2018), they typically were more seasoned or played in hyper-productive systems. Any