2025 College Football Bowl Game Picks: Back Utah to Win Big Over Nebraska

College football bowl season is about one thing: motivation. 

How motivated are teams to play in these exhibition games? You have to target the correct games and situations to have a chance to win your wagers on bowl games. 

With that in mind, here's what I'm on currently.

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TUESDAY, DEC. 23

Toledo @ Louisville

Toledo underachieved this season. The Rockets were pegged to win 8.5 games and they won just eight. They finished 6-2 in the MAC behind their outstanding defense. They allowed just three points in three of their last four games. The other game was just nine points allowed against Ball State. All four of these contests featured teams ranked 109, 115, 134 and 135 in offensive efficiency. 

Now Toledo faces a different beast in Louisville, a team that ranks 39th in yards per play. The issue for Louisville’s offense, however, is turnovers, which has led to a lower points-per-drive number. Louisville ended the season with 41 points and zero turnovers against Kentucky. 

So when it’s good, it’s very good.

The issue for Toledo in this contest is that its head coach took a job at UConn. Jason Candle had been at Toledo since 2016, and it was time for him to move up. Same as every Group of Six program in this spot, which is why I worry about the motivation for Toledo. 

The Rockets are playing for an interim coach, with their players either going to the NFL or looking to hit the portal. I don’t know how hard they will try in this game, but I do expect Louisville to care about finishing the season strong.

PICK: Louisville (-8) to win by