2025 CFB SEC Betting Preview: Why to fade the Texas hype - ESPN

Technically, Texas is back.

Steve Sarkisian has stacked back-to-back playoff appearances, cementing national relevance for the Longhorns. But in 2025, the conversation shifts from «are they back?» to «can they stay?» With redshirt sophomore QB Arch Manning as the new face of the program, the hype is real, the headlines are loud, but the schedule? Not easy.

This season feels less like a title march and more like a detour through the construction zone with a young quarterback, key roster turnover and little room for error.

Can Texas get to 11 wins? The market has Texas listed at 10.5 wins with heavy juice to the under at -220. That's telling in itself. While bettors appear to be focused on the Longhorns' high ceiling, this team has enough questions that the under still holds value despite the price. The price on Texas to miss the playoffs (+225)gives bettors an opportunity to bet against a team that might not be as playoff-ready as the media hype suggests.

The Longhorns benefited from an easier schedule in 2024, playing just two true road games against a ranked opponent, at Vanderbilt and then at Texas A&M. This year, the difficulty ramps up significantly. Texas opens the season in Columbus against the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes, where Manning will make his first career road start.

It's one thing to get comfortable against UL Monroe or UTEP but it's another challenge to walk into a packed Horseshoe against the No. 1 defense in the country and perform under pressure. Ohio State has lost just one home opener since 1978. That's not the setting you want for a new quarterback breaking in a new receiving corps.

Later in the year, Texas travels to Athens to face Georgia, where the Bulldogs are 47-1 at home