2024 NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets: Back Rams to cover, win

Wild Card Weekend is here, and I'm looking forward to diving into what should be an incredible weekend of NFL games.

There are so many smart wagers that we could make during this first weekend of the playoffs. 

In addition to backing Los Angeles, my picks this week feature a couple of teasers.

Check out my best bets for Wild Card Weekend.

MONDAY, JAN. 13

Vikings @ Rams (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This is tricky to handicap because this game was moved to Arizona due to the fires in California. Early in the week, money came in on the Rams. After the change in venue, the Vikings went back up to -2.5. 

Still, I think the Rams are the side here, with the points and on the moneyline.

Sam Darnold is having the best season of his career by a significant margin, but this is his first playoff game. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start when facing a QB with playoff experience are 19-37-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last 22 years and are 19-38 straight up (SU). 

In a de facto playoff game in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed on the line, Darnold struggled badly. He went 18-for-41 for 166 yards in his worst performance of the season. 

The Lions confused Darnold with the blitz. They toggled between man and zone defense, forcing the QB to hold the ball and process an extra second or two. 

He couldn’t deliver. 

The Rams defense isn’t as blitz-happy (Minnesota ranks first in blitz percentage this season; Rams rank 20th). So Darnold won’t be that bad, unless the Vikings are playing catch up all night. They had more snaps when leading than any team in the NFL this season.

This game will turn on the Rams offense, which is at full strength with Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua all healthy. That wasn’t the