Apr 18, 2024 - 15:19
By espn.com

2024 NFL draft betting: ESPN predictor props, picks, more - ESPN

Let's put the Draft Day Predictor to work for us.

For the uninitiated, the Draft Day Predictor is a probabilistic forecast of when players will be selected in the NFL draft, based on expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs. It provides the range of outcomes for individual prospects and the chance a certain player will be available or selected at a specific pick. This all makes it useful for teams in the draft, fans following along and… NFL draft bettors.

We can compare the Predictor's outputs to props for player over/unders and specific players at specific picks, and we will. We also simulate the draft many times using the Predictor to answer multi-conditional props, such as the number of cornerbacks drafted in the first round (this is where it really shines). So, a week out from the draft, let's take a look at the Predictor's betting takes.

WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) to be second WR drafted (+500)

The Predictor certainly agrees with consensus that Harrison is the favorite to go first among wide receivers. But how sure are we? ESPN analyst Louis Riddick recently wrote that «many evaluators» believe Malik Nabers is the best receiver in the class. Who is to say those evaluators aren't in the building for, say, the Cardinals, Chargers or Giants and wouldn't choose the LSU receiver first?

The Predictor gives Harrison a 36% chance (+178) to be the second receiver selected. This is a better bet, in the Predictor's mind, than Nabers to be the first WR selected at +350.

WR Rome Odunze (Washington) to be drafted at No. 8 (+600)

The Predictor has a