2024 NBA playoffs - Bets, lines and stats for Mavericks-Timberwolves Game 1 - ESPN

The Western Conference finals begin tonight (8:30 ET) with two teams fresh off defeating the top two seeds in the previous round.

The Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26, 40-39-3 ATS) and Dallas Mavericks (50-32, 49-33 ATS) are both excellent defensively and have defensive units built around traditional big men who can defend the paint and crash the glass.

Oh yeah, there are also really big-name offense-producers in guys named Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, Kyrie Irving and Karl-Anthony Towns. This should be the start of a fun series, so let's take a last look at the matchups to amplify angles of interest for players and/or teams to outproduce expectations.

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET

Mavericks-Timberwolves under 207.5 total points (-115). In their four wins against the Nuggets, the Timberwolves' defense clamped down like the 2004 Pistons. The Nuggets, one of the best offenses in basketball, were held to 84.8 PPG in those four contests. Meanwhile, on the other side, the Mavericks also have been a stifling defense since the trade deadline, tied for third in the Western Conference in team defensive rating since February 8 (behind the Timberwolves and Thunder). I expect this to be a defensive-minded series that is won in the trenches, with several low-scoring games. With both teams coming off long, grueling series last round, Game 1 could be one of the relatively low-scoring contests.

Rudy Gobert over 1.5 blocks (-160). Gobert is fresh off working to defend the toughest cover in the NBA in Nikola Jokic, but in this series he gets to face the Mavericks' duo of athletic, defensive-minded centers. Both Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively are pure finishers in the paint