2024 Fantasy football projections - Players who will score more TDs - ESPN

As you get ready for fantasy football 2024, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay's updated projections throughout the season.

Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.

From the 2011 to 2022 seasons, there were 151 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 151, 101 (66.9%) scored more touchdowns the next season.

Focusing in on the 40 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 32 (80.0%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 13 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 11 (84.6%) found the end zone more often the next year. Slot WRs Jason Avant (2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the two exceptions.

Last season, 29 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches, with notables Dalton Kincaid (2), Drake London (2), DeMario Douglas (0), Chigoziem Okonkwo (1), Josh Downs (2) and Jerry Jeudy (2) scoring under three.

We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There are 39 instances in which a back failed to reach seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 39, 32 (or 82.1%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first year, but each scored at least seven times the next season (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller, Brian Robinson Jr.). The average second-year touchdown