2024 CFP first-round picks, predictions: Back Tennessee to cover, fade SMU

The time has come. 

The first ever 12-team College Football Playoff begins Friday night, with Indiana visiting South Bend to take on Notre Dame. And then, three more exciting matchups take place on Saturday. 

There was so much debate about whether expanding the playoffs would be good or bad for college football. But now that the games are here, it’s hard not to be excited. All four matchups have a spread of a touchdown or more. That's the complete opposite of conference championship weekend, a weekend in which all the major conferences featured title games with a line of three points or fewer. 

With a trip to the quarterfinals on the line, let’s dig into all four games, with a recommended bet on each one.

No. 10 Indiana @ No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5, O/U 52.5)

The battle of Indiana features two one-loss teams.

Indiana lost at Ohio State; Notre Dame was on the wrong end of the most shocking upset of the year, losing as a four-touchdown favorite to Northern Illinois in Week 2. 

While both teams have gaudy records and impressive point differentials, there are plenty of questions about both teams’ strength of schedule. 

I prefer Indiana plus the points in this one because I think the Hoosiers keep this game close and have a real chance to pull the upset. 

But my favorite bet is the Under of 52 points. 

Indiana has the nation’s top run defense, allowing under 75 yards per game rushing and under three yards per carry. And Notre Dame is a run-heavy team. Both times Indiana stepped up in class (against Michigan and Ohio State), sustaining offense was a major issue.

Weather could also be a factor here.

PICK: Under 52 points scored by both teams combined

No. 11 SMU @ No. 6 Penn State (-9, O/U 54)

SMU is a great story and