2024 Baseball Hall of Fame: Helton, Utley, other tough decisions - ESPN

On his first try, 3,000 Hit Club member Adrian Beltre is a lock for a Hall of Fame induction ceremony this summer. The much-beloved Bartolo Colon, we're afraid, isn't going to make the 2024 Cooperstown cut.

How about the rest of the field? ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield take a look at the candidacies of some of the leading vote-getters on the BBWAA ballot to date and weigh their Hall of Fame chances for this year — and beyond.

Players are listed in order of their current balloting percentage, via Ryan Thibodaux's Hall of Fame tracker site.

The case for Mauer: Mauer had a very high level of peak performance as a catcher — winning three batting titles and hitting an incredible .365/.444/.587 in his MVP season in 2009 (nobody has hit for that high of an average since). During his nine full seasons as a catcher, he hit .323/.405/.469 with more walks than strikeouts. His career WAR of 55.2 is ninth all time among players who were primarily catchers (of the top 11 in WAR, only Mauer isn't a Hall of Famer) and his seven-year peak ranks fifth all time. He won three Gold Gloves and finished with a lifetime .306 average.

One big reason he might not get in: Did he play enough at catcher? Concussions forced Mauer to change positions after nine seasons behind the plate, so only 44.6 of his total WAR came as a catcher. His career counting stats aren't that impressive, even including his five seasons as a mediocre first baseman: 143 home runs, 923 RBIs and 2,123 hits.

The bottom line for 2024 — and beyond: Mauer is polling much better than expected at 83.3%, so while that total is expected to drop once all the ballots are in, Mauer has a shot to get in as a first-year inductee (75% is required).

If he doesn't