2023 NBA draft projections -- Best prospects, most overrated and underrated - ESPN

The 2023 NBA draft class could be a historic set of players, according to ESPN Analytics' NBA draft projections. Nine players have at least a 30% chance to become an All-Star-caliber player, the most since our projections debuted in 2015.

The NBA draft model forecasts a range of outcomes for players entering the league. A full breakdown of the methodology can be found at the end of this story. The abridged version is that the model is a combination of five individual ones based on the following:

NCAA production

International production

ESPN draft expert rankings

AAU statistics

NBA combine measurements

The overall model can be used to probabilistically determine the future performance of prospects about to enter the NBA.

Wembanyama is the clear No. 1 in this year's draft, with a 55% chance to be an All-Star-caliber player. He has the third-highest odds since 2015, trailing Zion Williamson's (59%) and Cade Cunningham (58%). Wembanyama's average predicted real plus-minus in his fourth season is 1.2, also third since 2015.

Despite that, our model may be underrating a prospect who stands at a reported 7-foot-5 with an 8-foot wingspan. He's the No. 1-ranked international prospect in the model's history. Here are a few of his rankings among international prospects since 2015 in opponent-adjusted stats:

No. 10 in 3-point FGs (the next center is No. 68)

No. 2 in block percentage

No. 7 in defensive, No. 10 in offensive and No. 7 in total rebounding percentage

No. 12 in turnover percentage

No. 2 in box plus-minus (a box score-based metric estimating a player's contribution when on the court)

The NBA draft model also produces comparisons for each prospect based on their projections, position, height, weight and age. Wembanyama's top