Women's Bubble Watch: March Madness bracket predictions - ESPN

Champ Week has been brutal for non-Power 5 teams that were hoping to be in play for at-large bids. Teams such as Cleveland State, Columbia and Saint Joseph's, once hopeful of an invite if they didn't win their conference tournaments, now likely have no such expectations.

Portland's upset of Gonzaga in the WCC tournament title game Tuesday means the conference will be a two-bid league as the Bulldogs take a bubble spot. Add impressive play from bubble teams in the Big Ten during their tournament and the bubble is a lot smaller than it looked a week ago.

To examine the bubble for the 2024 women's NCAA tournament, we'll use ESPN Analytics' Women's College Basketball Power Index (BPI), which represents how many points above or below average a team is.

Along with the team ratings, BPI generates Strength of Record (SOR), a measure of how impressive each team's record is given their schedule. We'll also utilize the Strength of Schedule (SOS) the selection committee uses.

Here is our current projection of the bubble through Tuesday's games and the conclusion of every Power 5 conference tournament:

Teams from expected one-bid conferences + Portland: 26
Locks: 38
The bubble: 14 teams for 4 available spots
Projected in: 4 teams
Work to do: 4 teams
Projected out: 7 teams

Notre Dame's Sonia Citron comes down with a clutch rebound late in the fourth quarter to ice the game against NC State.

Locks

NC State Wolfpack, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Virginia Tech Hokies, Syracuse Orange, Louisville Cardinals, Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles, North Carolina Tar Heels

Projected in

Miami Hurricanes

Case to get in: Miami helped bolster its case during the ACC conference tournament, beating UNC to add an additional quality win to its