Win-loss record ceilings, floors for all NFL teams in 2025 - ESPN

During the preseason, all 32 NFL teams have high expectations, but a lot can impact the race to Super Bowl LX over 17 regular-season games. There are often record-setting performances, unforeseen surprises — off the field and on it — and impactful variables we're not even thinking about. The 2025 season will be no different.

To look at the bigger picture and just how good — or bad — every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Research team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2025, with extremely unlikely outliers eliminated.

If everything goes right, what might each team's record be? And if the worst scenario plays out, what would its record look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for every team, then asked our NFL Nation reporters to explain the biggest factor that will determine where each team falls within that win-total spectrum. However, our reporters weren't allowed to go with the easy answer and write about the success or failure of the quarterback they cover.

Let's go division by division, picking X factors for all 32 teams:

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: The defensive line

What is this Buffalo defensive line capable of? The Bills made it an emphasis in the offseason to invest in what they viewed as a clear issue, and that was the