Will Texans' defense be able to slow down Josh Allen and the Bills? - ESPN

Week 12 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday night with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Houston Texans.

Josh Allen is coming off a six-TD performance for the Bills, who are trying to chase down the New England Patriots in the AFC East. The Texans evened their record with their second straight win last Sunday but are entering a brutal stretch of the schedule, with road games against the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs up next.

The Texans defeated the Bills last season, but that was with C.J. Stroud at quarterback. Stroud is still in the NFL's five-step concussion protocol, leaving Davis Mills to step in under center once again.

The Bills are 6-point favorites for Thursday's game, one in which Allen also has a chance to break the career rushing TD record by a quarterback.

Matt Bowen, Joe Fortenbaugh, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet the game.

Note: Odds at time of publication and subject to change. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET Sportsbook.

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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Total points UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Fortenbaugh: Buffalo's weakness is its run defense, which currently ranks 26th in the NFL in defensive rush success rate. Unfortunately for the Texans, they aren't equipped to exploit that issue with their bottom-10 rush offense. Flip the equation around and you get Josh Allen and his sub-par receiving unit facing the NFL's second-ranked defense in terms of EPA. This has «rock fight» written all over it.

Texans team total UNDER 19.5 (-105)

Maldonado: With Davis Mills, the Texans are a slow-starting, low-ceiling offense that needs broken plays or short fields to score, and Buffalo