Will South Carolina win March Madness? ESPN ran the numbers - ESPN

South Carolina has officially logged a second straight undefeated season heading into March Madness, thanks to an incredible Kamilla Cardoso buzzer-beater and a solid showing against LSU in the SEC final. ESPN's Women's College Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives the Gamecocks a 39% chance to win the NCAA tournament.

The Gamecocks started off as the highest-ranked preseason team, just ahead of UConn and LSU, according to BPI. They haven't moved from that spot, and the gap between them and the rest of women's college basketball has only grown. Through Monday's games, South Carolina had a BPI of 50.2, with No. 2 UConn the only other team over 45.

However, 39% still means if given the choice between South Carolina and the field, BPI would take the field. We've seen this play out before, with South Carolina unbeaten last season before losing to Iowa in the Final Four. Which teams have a chance to do the same in this year's Big Dance? ESPN simulated the tournament 1,000 times using BPI and Charlie Creme's women's Bracketology. The Gamecocks won 391 times. Let's examine the other results.

Number of simulations won: 138 (13.8%)
BPI chance to win head-to-head vs. South Carolina: 38.4%

UConn's season hasn't been what we expected, as injuries plagued the team and prevented it from finishing 2023-24 with its strongest group. Due to Aaliyah Edwards' nose injury, UConn entered Monday's Big East championship game with just seven available players. Still, the Huskies have the second-best net efficiency in the country. They went 0-5 against teams in the top 12 of BPI but destroyed every other team they played.

To add some perspective, UConn's win probability never dipped below 90% in the fourth quarter in any of its 29 victories this