Will Europe see more snow this winter? Here’s how El Niño could affect our weather

In July, the return of the El Niño weather phenomenon was officially confirmed by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

On top of global warming from human-caused carbon emissions, experts have said it is a “double whammy” for extreme weather and record temperatures.

Now the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said that there is a 95 per cent chance that a moderate to strong El Niño season will continue until February 2024.

And we’re not likely to see the biggest effects of this weather event until next year.

So what can we expect?

El Niño events typically last between nine to 12 months but can persist for years, peaking between November and January. Scientists don’t really know why this is and we still have a lot to learn about these weather patterns.

The current event is expected to continue into 2024 with experts predicting it will grow stronger in the coming months and end in spring next year.

The complicated puzzle of the world’s weather systems, however, makes it difficult to predict how El Niño will affect Europe’s weather as the year goes on.

How it changes rainfall, wind, temperatures and other climate patterns could also vary depending on where you are on the continent.

“El Niño years have a tendency to have a mild wet and westerly start to winter (Nov-Dec) and a colder, drier end to winter (Jan-Mar) across most of northern Europe,” says Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK’s Met Office.

In southern Europe, it could bring wetter conditions overall. But, he adds, it's important to note that this is the average across many El Niño cases and isn’t strong enough to determine the outcome for certain.

“Instead, El Niño just shifts the probability in favour of these