What history can tell us about the future of the Mavericks-Clippers series - ESPN

The LA Clippers had the Western Conference's 11th-best record after the All-Star break at 15-14, trailing not only the other nine teams to make the postseason but also the Houston Rockets. Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks went 16-2 over an 18-game stretch after moving Daniel Gafford and Derrick Jones Jr. into the starting lineup on March 7, losing their last two games only after securing the No. 5 seed in the West and resting their starters.

Now these two teams face each other in the first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs. The Clippers opened the series by dominating Sunday's Game 1 against the Mavericks, winning 109-97 in a game in which LA led by 29 points in the third quarter.

Sunday's result was a reminder that what happens in March and April often stays in the regular season rather than carrying over into the playoffs. But what does history tell us about this trend? And what does it mean for the rest of this Clippers-Mavericks series? Let's break down the meaning of peaking — or fading — heading into the postseason.

For the most part, history tells us that it's more important to play well in the first half of the season. Over the past 10 playoffs, not counting the bubble in 2020, the team with the better net rating before the All-Star break has gone 109-41 (.727) in all series, as compared to 93-57 (.620) for the team with the better net rating after the break.

That happens in part because the All-Star Game doesn't split the NBA season into even halves. Typically, teams play nearly twice as many games before the break, so naturally the first half is likely to translate into home-court advantage. But even when you account for that, higher seeds that do better in the first half have a better series record (100-29, .775)