Week 9 best bets: How to bet Illinois-Washington, Auburn-Arkansas and more - ESPN

It's Week 9, and the storylines are starting to matter as much as the numbers.

Illinois is still fighting for a spot in the playoff conversation. Georgia Tech is quietly trying to stay perfect. Cincinnati is sitting at the top of the Big 12, looking to prove it belongs. Throw in an Auburn-Arkansas matchup, which is pure chaos waiting to happen, and we've got a solid blend of wager options.

Four games, four chances to find the edges that make this sport beautiful and maybe a little profitable.

All odds by ESPN BET

Pick: Illinois +4.5

You see me talk a lot about the pass rush. To me, it's the most important data point when the disparity is large enough.

Illinois has a top 10 pass rush. It is disruptive. When Demond Williams Jr. is kept clean, he completes 78% of his passes for more than 10 yards per attempt. Under pressure though, that number falls to 55%.

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But here's something that could matter — Williams has thrown four interceptions this season. Three came when he was kept clean, all four when he wasn't blitzed and he threw three in one game against Michigan last week.

He has shown the struggles against defenses that sit back, rush four and make him read coverages instead of reacting to pressure. Illinois can do exactly that. It is one of the few teams that can generate disruption with just its front, keeping seven in coverage to confuse his reads.

That style is the counter to Washington's rhythm-based offense. If Illinois gets pressure without sending extras, that rhythm breaks. Combine that with how well Illinois played Ohio State compared to when Washington hosted the