Week 12 best bets: How to bet TCU-BYU, UCF-Texas Tech and more - ESPN

Week 12 is here, and the board finally feels like it's talking back. Some totals are whispering, some spreads are screaming and a couple of these games… well, they're practically sending handwritten invitations.

This week's card is a mix of unders (been loving my under lately) that make too much sense, a dog that plays like it wants to bite, and a few matchups where the math and the matchup actually agree for once.

Think of it as a little buffet of conviction.

All odds by ESPN BET

Bet to make: Boise State team total UNDER 19.5

With Max Cutforth at quarterback, this offense simply loses its punch. His 4.4 yards per attempt and 51% completion rate limits the explosive abilities right now, it's a unit trying to survive through the run game and short-field drives.

That's a problem against a San Diego State defense that's been elite at home. The Aztecs have allowed just 31 total points in their four home games, holding three opponents to seven points or less.

Their front should overwhelm a Boise State offensive line that's given up 18 sacks on the season breaking in a new QB behind center. Boise State's run game has been solid, but this matchup flips its strength against San Diego State's biggest advantage, a front seven that wins early downs and forces third-and-longs.

San Diego State's methodical pace also limits possessions. The math, the matchup and the trend all align. Boise State's defense might keep it close, but the offense doesn't have enough juice to cash this over.

Bet to make: Jacksonville State +3.5

The Gamecocks have found their rhythm with a ground game that is among the best in Conference USA, averaging 252 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per carry.

Watch college football and much more in the newly