UFC 293 expert picks and best bets: How can Israel Adesanya dodge a massive upset against Sean Strickland? - ESPN

Israel Adesanya makes the first title defense of his second reign as UFC middleweight champion when he takes on the challenge of Sean Strickland in the main event at UFC 293 in Sydney on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPNEWS and ESPN+, early prelims at 6:30 on ESPN+).

Adesanya, ranked No. 4 in ESPN's pound-for-pound men's rankings, regained the 185-pound belt in April with a knockout of Alex Pereira. Strickland, ESPN's No. 8 middleweight, has won two fights in a row and eight of his past 10.

Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC lightweight and current broadcast analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

How Adesanya wins: Footwork and target practice. I also think he's going to need to find the big shot. He should be able to hit Strickland often, but h has to get his respect with a clean shot and not just glancing blows. Sean gets hit but doesn't always get hit clean. Izzy can't afford to get sloppy. And the closer Sean is to him, the sloppier Adesanya will get. So he has to keep some space and stay clean. You can't let Strickland maintain punching range.

How Strickland wins: Constant pressure and being ready to check leg kicks. That's going to be the biggest thing for him. Strickland will go forward, but he needs to catch the leg kicks because if his leg is compromised, it compromises his defense and ability to win the fight. I think Sean can keep it close, but he has to start with checking kicks. If he's walking forward but getting his legs banged up the whole