UEFA Champions League best bets for the first leg of the round of 16

UEFA Champions League is back! The round of 16 gets underway this week with the first legs in four of the eight matchups.

One rule change to keep in mind is that away goals are no longer the tiebreaker if two teams are level after two legs. Instead, they'll go directly to extra time and then penalties, if needed, to determine who advances. Theoretically, this means that home teams can play less defensively, since surrendering a road goal is not as devastating. In reality, I'm not convinced much will change in the first leg, although the math will be different for next month's second legs.

Let's get to it...

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

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Though all of the stars won't be available, this is the glamour matchup of the round, featuring the league leaders from France and Spain.

Real Madrid may be without Karim Benzema and left back Ferland Mendy, who haven't played in three weeks because of injuries. Either or both could return, although their effectiveness will remain in question.

Real Madrid's offense has dropped a bit without Benzema this season, averaging 1.6 expected goals per 90 minutes without him, compared to 1.9 with him. He has over one-third of Real Madrid's goals this season (24 out of 70), and Vinicius Junior (15 goals) is the only other Real Madrid player in double digits.

PSG likely won't have Sergio Ramos or Neymar, who hasn't played since November, although his absence hasn't been an issue. PSG has averaged 2.1 expected goals per 90 minutes without Neymar on the field, compared