Talking Horses: Perfect Power can upset Native Trail in 2,000 Guineas

The 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday revolves around Charlie Appleby’s Native Trail, last year’s champion juvenile colt, who will be one of the shortest-priced favourites this century when 15 runners go to post for the first Classic of the 2021 season.

Like the same stable’s Pinatubo, who was odds-on for the Guineas two years ago, Native Trail arrives at Newmarket unbeaten and with juvenile Group One victories in the National Stakes and Dewhurst Stakes already in the book. Unlike Pinatubo, who finished third, he has already notched a win as a three-year-old, outclassing five rivals when 1-4 favourite for the Craven Stakes earlier this month.

The question for punters, though, must be whether Native Trail’s price of around 11-10 is a fair reflection of his chance. Appleby himself seems uncertain whether the favourite or Coroebus, his stable companion, will prove to be the better colt this season, while other live contenders include the unbeaten Luxembourg, last season’s Vertem Futurity winner, and Perfect Power, a dual Group One winner as a juvenile.

Thursday’s draw for stall positions could also make life difficult for William Buick. Stall 15, on the wide outside, is tricky enough, but his main rivals are all drawn from one to four, close to with Royal Patronage, the most likely pace-setter, in six.

It is possible that the race will develop on the opposite side of the track to the favourite, and Perfect Power (3.40), at around 14-1, is a big price to make the most of his draw in stall three.

Those odds reflect the facts that Richard Fahey’s colt is unraced beyond seven furlongs, can be a handful in the preliminaries and is a son of a five-furlong specialist. There is middle-distance stamina on the other side of his