Talking Horses: Longhouse Poet good value to land Grand National

The first point to remember when attempting to sift the Grand National winner from 40 possibilities is that it has never been about finding the best horse in the race. William Lynn, its founder, was an Aintree landlord who wanted to attract customers to his hotel, and created a steeplechase run over local fields and obstacles that guaranteed a decent payout for anyone who could find the winner.

Nearly two centuries after Lottery – the 5-1 favourite – became the first horse to win, the National is more competitive than ever and luck, good and bad, always has a huge hand in the outcome. Minella Times and Any Second Now plotted similar routes through last year’s race until the 12th, where a faller brought Any Second Now to a standstill. Had Double Shuffle fallen in front of Minella Times instead, we would still be waiting for a first National victory by a female jockey.

Rachael Blackmore’s instincts and skill also played a major part, and her remarkable ability to find the smoothest path to the line, even amid the bedlam of a Grand National, will be even more important on Saturday as she looks for a repeat success on Minella Times from a 15lb higher mark.

The form of last year’s race, however, strongly suggests that Any Second Now is a much likelier winner, and with any luck in running, it is hard to see him finishing outside the top four. The form of his narrow defeat of Escaria Ten last time also looks rock-solid, and Gordon Elliott’s gelding is another prime candidate for the frame, along with Enjoy D’Allen.

But Ted Walsh’s gelding is also up in the weights, and this is no longer a race in which previous experience of the obstacles is a significant advantage. The last five horses to win the National were seeing the