Talking Horses: Frankie Dettori can upset Derby favourites on Piz Badile

There is a familiar shape to the betting for the Derby at Epsom on Saturday, with the most impressive of the recent trial winners – Desert Crown and Stone Age – heading the market against an extended list of lightly raced opponents with significant scope for improvement on their form to date.

It was much the same story in each of the last four seasons, in fact, and all four favourites – Bolshoi Ballet (11-8), Kameko (5-2), Sir Dragonet (11-4) and Saxon Warrior (4-5) – failed even to reach the first three.

Most punters, though, have short memories, and many will look no further than Desert Crown, the convincing winner of last month’s Dante Stakes, for a bet in Saturday’s Classic. Sir Michael Stoute’s colt is priced up at around 15-8 overnight, has the strongest recent form and should progress from his trial success on only his second trip to a racecourse.

His odds, though, suggest roughly a one-in-three chance of victory, which is simply too short when Saturday’s field is packed with credible winners. Nor is Desert Crown certain to find more for the step up in trip, while he showed understandable signs of his inexperience in the closing stages at York. Whether he is quite ready to face 16 opponents in the cauldron of Epsom on Derby day remains to be seen.

And while his winning time at York was good, it was no stronger than that for several of the trials, including Changingoftheguard’s Chester Vase and Star Of India’s win in the Dee Stakes the following afternoon.

Like most Derbys, in other words, this one is probably a lot more open than the betting might suggest. While Changingoftheguard’s proven stamina makes him a tempting alternative to the favourite, Piz Badile (4.30) could prove to be the pick of the prices at