Stock Watch: One thing that must change for all 30 MLB teams - ESPN

Six weeks into the 2026 MLB season, the narratives that will dominate the summer are already taking shape. But we're not there yet.

There's still plenty of time for teams to either self-correct from a faltering start, or to validate quick beginnings.

Whatever their expectations entering the season, and regardless of their early results, there's at least something each team can fix. As we take stock of the current landscape and how it has changed since we checked in last month, we're going to zero in on these issues by identifying one thing that must change for all 30 teams.

Win average: 101.0 (Last Stock Watch: 101.9, 1st)
In the playoffs: 98.8% (Last: 97.7%)
Champions: 25.5% (Last: 27.6%)

This Stock Watch is based on a roster-forecasting model built from the neutral-context version of the Steamer projections from FanGraphs along with over/under lines and World Series/pennant odds in the betting markets. These were used to create a baseline win expectation for each team that served as the basis for 10,000 simulations of the 2026 schedule, yielding our win forecasts and postseason probabilities.

One thing that must change: Bullpen inconsistency

In most ways, the Dodgers' early metrics paint the picture of yet another L.A. powerhouse. Sure, the offense has been tepid of late, and because the Dodgers have baseball's oldest position group, that gives you pause. But insofar as the Dodgers have anything at all to worry about, it's the relief staff that is facing months without anchor Edwin Diaz. Tanner Scott and Alex Vesia have been terrific, but beyond those two, it's been hit-or-miss for a middle-of-the-pack bullpen. This has contributed to a slow start in close games (6-9 in one- and two-run affairs) and a 12-win