Setting The Pick: Raptors visit Bulls in crucial showdown

I’d bet any amount of money the Chicago Bulls never envisioned how critical this Monday night matchup would be.

Coming off three straight losses and going 2-8 over their past 10, the Bulls are suddenly just 1.5 games away from falling back into the play-in tournament.

While the Raptors are certainly punching above their weight class, there’s no denying how well-deserved their recent wins have been.

If it wasn’t for an overtime loss against the Lakers, Toronto would be riding a seven-game win streak. All those victories came against opponents vying for a play-in berth or better. 

Judging by their momentum and recent form, here are some of my best bets ahead of tonight.

I think there’s a very good chance this ends up being a one-possession game.

Take the points.

These two teams are trending in opposite directions so drastically, it’s hard to expect things to reverse without any catalyst.

Patrick Williams returns for his first game since a 65-game layoff.

Gary Trent Jr. misses his first game since January.

Is that enough?

The Bulls haven’t played since Friday, while the Raptors are flying from Philadelphia to Chicago on the second night of a back-to-back.

But guess what? Toronto is 10-5-0 this season ATS with no rest. They’re 9-6-0 ATS when at a rest disadvantage.

Since the All-Star break, Toronto has a 0.2 net rating over 14 games while Chicago is -7.2 over 11.

The better team is getting points and their floor general, Fred VanVleet, is back.

Don’t overthink it.

Over Chicago’s past 11 games, they’ve gone under the total nine times.

Over Toronto’s past 11, they’ve gone under eight times.

Interestingly, they’re both failing to hit the number for similar reasons: three-point shooting.

Prior to the All-Star break, Chicago