Rugby World Cup 2023: a year away and still entirely unpredictable

Much can change in the space of 12 months. Just ask Boris Johnson. Or, indeed, Vladimir Putin. In politics, as well as rugby union, it pays to assume very little. If anyone a year ago had predicted yellow and blue Ukrainian flags fluttering in every British town or Liz Truss becoming the UK’s next prime minister they would have been quietly escorted from the building.

Which is why the world’s leading rugby nations should assume nothing a year out from the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Right now you would probably back France to beat New Zealand on the tournament’s opening night. But if there are untimely French injuries or a Parisian monsoon would you put your chateau on it? Call it the Truss Effect. Because if the past two months have shown anything it is that the rugby world has rarely been less stable or predictable.

The margins at the top level have also shrunk to near invisibility. Scotland, England, Ireland and Wales have all enjoyed at least one victory over a southern hemisphere nation inside the past two months. But how much does that prove? Argentina have just beaten New Zealand one week and lost by 50 points the next. The Wallabies had South Africa on toast in Adelaide only to be reduced to smashed avo in Sydney seven days later. And so on.

Remember, too, the zigzagging journey taken by South Africa to the 2019 title, clinched by a thumping final win over England in Yokohama. A year previously, under the same management and with a similar squad, it was a different story. In the Rugby Championship the Springboks were beaten by Australia and Argentina and ended up losing as many games as they won.

Few mentioned that minor detail when Siya Kolisi was hoisting the Webb Ellis trophy aloft. It will be the same if another