Road to the Kentucky Derby: 50-point races could be key to picking a Derby winner

One of the most difficult tasks in handicapping is to predict a Kentucky Derby winner months before the race actually takes place. The purpose of the prep races for the big event is to separate the serious players from the ones that may not be able to handle the top level of competition. Sometimes, a horse that is impressive in January or February is overwhelmed by the competition in March or April, when the waters get deeper.

Since the Derby points system was instituted in 2013, casual fans have looked to the 100-points-to-the winner races. This year, there will be 8 of these events, with 7 in the U.S. and the U.A.E. Derby being the eighth. Real contenders, however, can emerge earlier than these races. Often, handicappers rely on the “eyeball test,” looking for a note of brilliance in an emerging 3-year-old. That brilliance factor is not tied to any calendar, as a horse can show maturity and brilliance at any time leading up to the big race in Louisville.

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On Saturday, March 5th, NBC Sports will present the “1st Saturday in March,” at 4pm ET on CNBC, which will include the Fountain of Youth Stakes from Gulfstream and the San Felipe Stakes from Santa Anita. These are 50-points-to-the-winner races, and a look at their history shows how a Kentucky Derby winner can emerge from races of this type.

History of Kentucky Derby winners in 50-points-to-the-winner races In 2013, the Todd Pletcher-trained Violence was a deserving 3/5 favorite in the Fountain of Youth. He was undefeated in 3 starts with 2 stakes wins in the Nashua Stakes and the Cash Call Futurity. The 2nd choice, at a juicy 5-1, was the Shug McGaughey-trained Orb, who was making