Real Madrid, Man City, Liverpool: Who will win the Champions League this season?

The Champions League groups stages are four games old and we’ve already got a good idea of which clubs will be competing in the last 16 of the greatest competition in European football.

In fact, we already have the names of five of the teams that have progressed to the knockout rounds with Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Napoli and Club Brugge all safely through.

However, it’s sad news for Celtic, Rangers and Viktoria Plzen who have already crashed out.

Now that we've had plenty of opportunity to watch every side during this campaign, who do we think is going to be lifting the trophy come Saturday, 10 June in Istanbul?

Well, it doesn't matter too much what we think.

What does the data say?

Well, we've turned to the guys at FiveThirtyEight who have not only worked out the chances of each side winning the Champions League but the likelihood of them reaching each round of the competition.

The favourites right now? Well, that's Manchester City.

Interestingly, when we brought you the data from FiveThirtyEight at the start of the season Bayern Munich were favourites. But despite winning all four group games - and City winning three and drawing one - the German side are now second favourites.

Why?

Well, because the data is based on 'Team Ratings' and City's start to the Premier League has increased that - mainly thanks to Erling Haaland's incredible form.

City are ranked at 25% to win the competition with Bayern standing at 20%. In fact, both teams are rated as having more than a 50% chance of reaching the semi-finals (59% and 51% respectively). Of course, there's a chance they meet in the quarter-finals.

Paris Saint-Germain are third favourites to win it with an 11% chance while Liverpool now have a 10%