Predicting NFL teams most likely to decline in 2026 season - ESPN

On Monday, I was an optimist, picking five NFL teams I expect to improve in 2026. Today, unfortunately, we hit the opposite side of the ledger. I know not to check my mentions on social media for a few days after this annual column, and I take a little longer to answer those texts from people inside the league. «Did you really have to pick us?»… there's never a good response.

Don't blame me. I don't have any vested interest or desire to see any team do poorly or struggle. In a zero-sum league, though, five teams improving means that five teams have to decline. And using data that has helped point toward future downswings, I will identify five teams that are likely to win fewer games in 2026.

Since 2017, the decline column has gone 34-9 at picking teams that will fall short of their win total from the previous season, including an adjustment for the shift from 16 games to 17 per season. The improve/decline columns overall are 69-17 (.802) during that span, with a 50-36 mark (.581) against the preseason over-unders archived on Pro-Football-Reference.com. The average decline amounts to about 3.4 wins per 17 games.

Last year, the column correctly predicted four of the five teams. The one miss was the Colts, who went 8-9 in 2024 before getting off to a white-hot start in 2025, hitting their bye at 8-2. An offense that looked perfect started to show cracks, lost Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles and went into free fall. Without Jones or DeForest Buckner for much of the second half, the Colts lost seven straight to finish 8-9 for the second consecutive season.

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But the other four teams suffered substantial steps backward. The Vikings went from 14-3 to 9-8, as J.J. McCarthy couldn't deliver on