Notable bets: NFL draft 2023 betting odds and trends

One quote from Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, perhaps best sums up how bookmakers view taking bets on the NFL draft.

«It's not if you're going to win or lose,» Pullen said. «It's how much you are going to lose.»

The draft kicks off Thursday, but betting on the top picks has been taking place for months. Odds can move dramatically with a single tweet or release of the latest mock draft. In some cases, they already have. A month ago, Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud was the consensus favorite to be the top pick. Starting this week, Stroud isn't even the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick.

ESPN's sports betting team will cover the odds and ends with insights from bookmakers and bettors this week in this updating file. Bookmark it and follow along.

Odds to be No. 1 overall pick in NFL draft [via Caesars Sportsbook]

Bryce Young ( -1,600)C.J. Stroud (+900)

The favorite in the first seven picks, per Caesars Sportsbook

On Oct. 14, Mojo, an online sports trading platform in New York, opened a market on the future NFL careers of college football's top quarterback prospects. Travis May, Mojo's lead for college football, was in charge of the IPOs on Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson and Hendon Hooker. May has since formed career projections for more than 100 NFL draft prospects based on the following stats: yards, first downs, touchdowns 40-plus-yard plays, turnovers and sacks. The share prices represent the statistical achievements of players over their NFL career.

May recently visited with ESPN about his process, his projections and the players who have attracted the most attention from bettors.

Q: What was your approach creating IPOs for more than 100 NFL draft