NHL playoff projections: Where will the Islanders finish?

When it comes to the Stanley Cup playoffs, the old adage is that a hot goalie can steal a series. So it should terrify the various Eastern Conference powerhouses that the New York Islanders are hanging around in a wild-card position with a dozen games to play.

Though he doesn't have the win total of other top netminders, Ilya Sorokin is having a monster season. His save percentage of .925 is third in the league, and he's earning plenty of attention in the Vezina Trophy conversation.

The Isles are currently in the first wild-card spot, with 80 points and 31 regulation wins in 71 games played, ahead of the suddenly hot Florida Panthers (79 and 31 in 70) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (78 and 25 in 70). So will New York still be in a wild-card position when the final games of the 2022-23 regular season are complete on April 14?

Tonight's matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs — one of those aforementioned powerhouses — is the next step on the Islanders' journey (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Hulu). They bested the Leafs 3-2 in OT back on Nov. 21, then lost 5-2 on Jan. 23. Thanks to a furious trade season, both of these rosters look quite a bit different these days (including former Leaf Pierre Engvall now skating for the Isles).

The next matchups should be easier; the Isles will visit the basement-dwelling Columbus Blue Jackets and the lottery-bound Buffalo Sabres. The ensuing five games will be quite the crucible: home against the New Jersey Devils; at the Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes; then back home for another game against the Lightning. They'll then close out against the Philadelphia Flyers, Capitals and Montreal Canadiens.

As of today, FiveThirtyEight gives the Isles a 69% chance of making