NHL betting watch - Smartest picks for awards winners

The ballots will be out soon for the 2021-22 NHL Awards, which means it's time to start locking in some bets.

As a Professional Hockey Writers Association voting member, I do not personally wager on the NHL Awards. I have a monthly platform in our NHL Awards Watch that chronicles how the voters are thinking about each award and also features my own analysis on the awards. I've seen that analysis help shape opinions of other voters before, so betting on the awards feels a little too «insider trading» for me.

But for you? There's money to be made in the awards voting, if you can tell where the wind is blowing.

Let's get something out of the way: Don't waste your money on the Vezina Trophy voting. Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers is -1000 to win the award. He has over 70% of the handle. He's going to win in a walk.

Now, onto the other more contentious awards ...

Favorite: Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (-350)

Runner-Up: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (+400)

Longshot: Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers (+2200)

Matthews has this thing pretty much sewn up.

There's a reason he has over 51% of the handle in MVP betting. His 58 goals is a Toronto Maple Leafs single-season record, and any time someone sets a new standard for an Original Six team it's pretty big news. He has a remarkable 2.00 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play and a points per game average (1.46) in line with McDavid (1.47). Matthews has also never won the award, finishing second for the Hart last season. The voters love making a new king.

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The voters are also prone to recency bias and that's why