NFL Week 3 betting guide: Analysis and top plays for Sunday's games - ESPN

Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: finding betting value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game-winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.

From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. With that, let's dive into our best bets, favorite defensive props and the top game to bet in Week 3.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Bowen's Game of the Week | Solak's plays | Walder's props

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-10.5, 46.5)
1 p.m. ET on CBS, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

I tend to stay away from double-digit spreads in this league (especially for road favorites). That can be bad business given the talent level and coaching we get on Sundays. But looking at the matchup and scheme advantages with Kansas City, I'm in on Andy Reid's team. I'll give you my quick notes for both clubs, along with some player props.

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When the Chiefs have the ball: The offseason addition of Kenneth Walker III has given the Chiefs a true