NFL Week 15 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on an NFL weekend, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.

So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week and the 2023 season are at the bottom of the story.

Odds via ESPN BET.

Patrick Mahomes under 24.5 completions (+100).

The Chiefs have not been able to put teams away this season like we would have expected. That should change Sunday. No matter how many drops the Chiefs have, the Patriots will still be outmatched. Once Kansas City gets out to a big lead they'll be able to take their foot off the gas and run the ball. Plus, that league-high 5.9% drop rate might be bad for Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, but it's helpful to us fading completions. My model projects 22.4 completions for Mahomes.

See also:

Baker Mayfield over 20.5 completions (-105)

Josh Allen over 34.5 pass attempts (-115).

Even though the Bills are more efficient running the ball this year than in the past, there's no question where this offense thrives the most: passing. They register 0.16 EPA per dropback and 0.04 EPA per designed carry. In what should be a crucial and close showdown with the powerhouse Cowboys, the Bills should want to lean into their advantage as much as they can. I'm way over here, with my model projecting Allen to record 38.9 pass attempts.

See also:

Jake Browning under 32.5 pass attempts (-120)

Jalen Hurts over 0.5 interceptions (+125).

As a favorite against Seattle — who has a below average