NFL playoffs: Upset keys, X factors in divisional round games - ESPN

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is rolling on, and we have two more great matchups. The wild-card round featured three upsets, including wins for both No. 6 seeds (the 49ers and Bills), marking the first time since 2020 that multiple teams seeded No. 6 or lower advanced to the divisional round. Could we see more surprise wins this weekend?

I provided keys to victory — one offensive and one defensive — for all four underdogs in the divisional round. That includes three road teams in the Bills, 49ers and Texans, along with the Bears, who have a tough matchup in Chicago against the Rams. These winning blueprints focus on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Then, I picked out one X factor player who could have the biggest impact for each team.

Let's look at how all four underdogs can win their divisional round matchups. (ESPN's Football Power Index and DraftKings Sportsbook provided odds for each game.)

Jump to a team:
BUF | CHI | HOU | SF

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
FPI prediction: NE, 52.0%
Game line: NE -3

Offensive key to victory: Create explosive plays on deep high-low reads

Since wide receiver Nico Collins is ruled out (concussion), the Texans will have to scheme more to create explosive plays. And if you watch the Houston tape, coordinator Nick Caley likes to create coverage voids on high-low reads for quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Here, the Texans can use Christian Kirk and rookie Jaylin Noel on the deep over routes to attack the outside one-third of the coverage. These are rhythm throws for Stroud that could lead to explosive opportunities, as we saw multiple times when he targeted Kirk against Pittsburgh in the wild-card round. Kirk finished with