NFL playoff divisional round betting odds, picks, trends, tips - ESPN

I'm getting some much-needed time off next week — my first vacation since before the NFL season started. You could almost call it a bye week.

The plan is to come back rested and ready to go with Super Bowl content, maybe some college basketball and whatever else the sports world provides.

But it doesn't always work like that. The first few days back from a vacation always require a bit of an adjustment period. Getting back on your normal sleep schedule, getting reintegrated into your traditional routine, putting off unpacking your suitcase for a few days because you decided to fly home the night before you go back to work (is that just me? Oh, OK).

Sports are often considered a microcosm of life, and just like we touched on during Week 18's motivation piece, we'll draw those parallels again here.

The San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens earned their time off by dominating in the regular season and both teams were actually able to rest key players in Week 18 as well. How will they respond to their first game action in three weeks? We won't truly know until Saturday.

My head is telling me to lay the points with Baltimore and San Francisco. My heart wants to see C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love continue to succeed. I'm sure many of you feel the same way.

But what does the data say about well-rested playoff teams coming off a bye?

Unfortunately, if you were expecting some dramatic reveal to answer that question, I don't have much for you. Since the NFL's expansion and realignment in 2002, playoff teams coming off a bye are a subpar 35-41-2 ATS. A 46% hit rate. A decent sample size that is unfortunately too close to .500 to turn into any actionable information.

Before you ask, I looked at the past five years, the past 10