NFL Football Power Index: 2023 projections, Super Bowl chances - ESPN

The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are the No. 1 team in ESPN's Football Power Index rankings for the 2023 NFL season. But interestingly, the model actually views the Philadelphia Eagles — who lost to the Chiefs in the title game last season — as the Super Bowl favorite. It's a result of the vast difference in quality between the NFL's two conferences: The AFC is loaded with talent, while the NFC appears to have only a few contenders, paving the way for Philly.

For the uninitiated, the Football Power Index — commonly referred to as the FPI — is our rating and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model's predictive ratings are based substantially on win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of schedule, along with factors such as past team performance and returning starters. We use team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections, which update every day during the season. Game predictions are also informed by factors such as travel, rest differential and changes at starting quarterback.

Let's take a closer look at the initial 2023 ratings, including storylines emerging from these numbers.

Jump to:Ratings | Super Bowl | Tight divisionsSchedule strength | Surprises | Draft order

Who else, really, could be No. 1? Offense is more stable year-to-year than defense, and the Chiefs led the league in expected points added per play last season by a wide margin. They are also returning their two most important ingredients in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Offensively, they are just too good, and that alone is enough to put the Super Bowl champs back atop the league to begin this coming season.

After Kansas City, the pattern holds — the Buffalo Bills and Eagles