NFL exec predictions: QB moves coming for Steelers, Raiders? - ESPN

Making NFL predictions is a lot like selecting players in the NFL draft. If you're hitting on 40% to 50% of your picks, that's pretty good.

Every January, ESPN asks industry sources to forecast the season. The possibilities are limitless, from free agency signings, retirements, contenders and pretenders to trades and MVP favorites.

Last year's forecast yielded a few duds (Russell Wilson to the Raiders, Packers to the Super Bowl) and a few winners (Kirk Cousins to the Falcons, 49ers taking a step back).

The proverbial crystal ball is foggy, with the ripple effects of the offseason just beginning. Five of the seven available head coaching jobs are still open as of Tuesday. Who fills the rest of those roles will have a major impact on roster planning and the proverbial dominoes that fall around those moves.

Several starting quarterbacks could be changing teams. The trade market should be robust yet again. And someone has to win the AFC South!

The NFL team executives, scouts and personnel figures ESPN spoke to in recent days have thoughts about the biggest storylines:

Some NFL personnel men see a path back to Minnesota for Darnold, who won't find a better situation to win and maximize his growth than playing under coach Kevin O'Connell while throwing to Justin Jefferson & Co. But the Vikings have the enticing option of starting J.J. McCarthy at a $960,000 rookie-scale salary in 2025, which allows them to strengthen the roster around him for the next few years.

All it takes is one suitor to drive Darnold's market to the point where it's cost prohibitive for Minnesota to retain him. And the numbers favor Darnold — at least five teams selecting in the top 10 of the NFL draft need a quarterback during a year when the supply