NFL divisional playoff upset keys: How each underdog can win - ESPN

There are four NFL playoff games on the divisional round slate, and three of them feature a big favorite, per ESPN BET. Two teams are actually favored by 9-plus points, and the closest matchup of the weekend still has the Bills installed as 3-point favorites over the Chiefs.

But it's the playoffs, and anything can happen. Just ask the Packers, who are moving on after dropping 48 points on the Cowboys despite being a 7.5-point underdog in the wild-card round. Executing the game plan will be crucial for the four underdogs this weekend if they want to pull off upsets and advance to their respective conference title games.

Let's take a closer look at the four road underdogs this weekend — Houston, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Kansas City — and map out how each can get it done. For each of the four teams, we pointed out a game-plan key, focusing on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Then we picked out one X factor player who could make a big upset impact, along with one offensive playmaker from the favorite who must be shut down. Additionally, we included game projections from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Here's how every underdog can win.

Jump to:
HOU-BAL | GB-SF | TB-DET | KC-BUF

When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
ESPN BET: BAL -9 (43.5)
FPI prediction: BAL, 81.7%

Game-plan key to an upset win: The Ravens' defense is a tough matchup, and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald's pressure schemes can manipulate Houston's protection counts. The Texans will see five-man schemes and simulated pressures that add a fourth pass-rusher from the second or third level. Baltimore was eighth in pressure this season (32.8% of opponent dropbacks), and beating that pressure