NFC South conundrum: Path to the playoffs, biggest hurdles - ESPN

The NFC South is still up for grabs late in the season for the third straight year, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a legitimate shot to win a fourth straight title.

The Buccaneers have taken advantage of a weak division the past two years (9-8 winner in 2023, 8-9 winner in 2022). Though Tampa Bay has won four straight titles, the Atlanta Falcons are lurking one game back. On Tuesday, Atlanta madea big move by benching quarterback Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix Jr. The New Orleans Saints have a slim chance of winning the division — even with a losing record — and the Carolina Panthers can still play spoiler with two division rivals on their closing schedule.

Here's a look at how the division race can play out in the final weeks of the 2024 season.

Chance to win division: 79.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 81.6%
Final games: at Dallas Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints
Remaining schedule of strength rank: 27

Path to the playoffs: Since their Week 14 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bucs have been in sole possession of first place in the division and control their destiny. They need to keep winning to maintain a one-game lead over the Falcons because of Atlanta's head-to-head tiebreaker. Their Week 15 game against the Los Angeles Chargers was their toughest remaining opponent, and they smoked them 40-17 for their fourth straight victory.

Biggest hurdles: Consistency has eluded them on defense, but they've found a winning formula despite mounting injuries. Though none of their remaining three opponents have winning records, the Panthers did take them to overtime in Week 13. They've also had issues with turnovers. Tampa Bay's 20 lost turnovers are seventh most in the league. — Jenna Laine

Chance to win