NBA Cup projections 2025: Group breakdowns, quarterfinal teams - ESPN

Friday isn't just Halloween. It also marks the opening day of the 2025 Emirates NBA Cup as the league's in-season tournament kicks off its third iteration.

Thus far, the Cup's single-elimination bracket has yielded tricks for favorites and treats to underdogs. Although the eventual NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder reached last year's final in Las Vegas, neither of the first two winners (the Los Angeles Lakers in 2023 and Milwaukee Bucks in 2024) won more than a single game the next postseason, indicative of how different the NBA Cup sprint is from the playoff marathon.

All of that is to say: Predicting the NBA Cup is a spooky proposition. Still, we look at which teams are best positioned with the help of projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), which accounts for team health and player ability.

For all six NBA Cup groups, we've used BPI to identify a favorite to advance, plus other contenders with an eye on how the wild-card spots in each conference might shake out. Let's look at who has the best chance to advance to Vegas in December.

Jump to a group:
East Group A (ATL, CLE, IND, TOR, WAS)
East Group B (BKN, BOS, DET, ORL, PHI)
East Group C (CHA, CHI, NYK, MIA, MIL)
West Group A (MIN, OKC, PHX, SAC, UTAH)
West Group B (DAL, NO, MEM, LAC, LAL)
West Group C (DEN, GSW, HOU, POR, SAS)

Note: All odds in this story are as of Wednesday morning.

Group favorite: Cleveland Cavaliers (55%)
Contender: Atlanta Hawks (24%)
Lurking: Toronto Raptors (11%), Indiana Pacers (7%), Washington Wizards (3%)

This top-heavy group is the most likely to fill the East's wild-card spot. That's partially because teams get the benefit of facing the Wizards, who rank last in BPI, as well as the Pacers, the 2023 runner-up, who have