NBA Cup betting - Value picks, tips for semifinals and MVP race - ESPN

Vegas, baby!

For the second time this calendar year, the NBA has gathered the attention of the sports world to Las Vegas. After introducing this class of rookies during the NBA 2K25 Summer League in July, this time they return to coronate the winner of the Emirates NBA Cup. The final four is set, with the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks facing the third-seeded Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern bracket, and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder facing the second-seeded Houston Rockets for Western supremacy.

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According to ESPN BET, the Thunder are the clear favorites to win the Emirates NBA Cup at +125, followed by the Bucks (+240), Rockets (+450) and Hawks (+525). The NBA Cup Tournament MVP favorites closely follow the team rankings, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+115) the favorite, followed by the best players on each of the subsequent teams (Giannis Antetokounmpo +320, Alperen Sengun +600, and Trae Young +850).

While I agree with ESPN BET that the Thunder are the most likely future champion, with SGA as the associated MVP, there is little juice (nor fun) in going chalk. There are many ways this can play out, so let's look at some of the intriguing angles that could provide value.

The Hawks enter the semifinals as hot as any of the other three finalists, winners of seven of their past eight games including two victories over the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers and a 15-point win over the Bucks in Milwaukee. A hot team is a dangerous team in a one-and-done-style tournament, something we've learned from decades of March Madness.

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