NBA 2025-26 season: Win projections for all 30 NBA teams - ESPN

Which NBA teams might be better or worse than expected this season? My stats-based projections help answer that question.

Last year, my model was high on the Cleveland Cavaliers (ranked second in the Eastern Conference) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (the highest overall projection) and appropriately liked the Brooklyn Nets and the Portland Trail Blazers to be more competitive than expected while putting the Philadelphia 76ers and the Phoenix Suns lower than conventional wisdom (but still not as poor as they actually finished, entirely out of the play-in tournament for both teams).

Based on the scoring of projections at the APBRmetrics forum, my recalibrated forecast had the second-lowest root mean squared error, a method that heavily penalizes bad misses. It also had the strongest correlation to actual wins and losses.

To project teams, I start with player ratings based on a combination of my SCHOENE stats-based projections and luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) provided by Krishna Narsu that covers the past three seasons. For each team, I project games played based on those missed to injury over the past three years and current absences then subjectively guess at the distribution of playing time.

The result is an expected wins total given average health, which is comparable to teams' over/under season win totals at ESPN BET. In addition to ranking each conference's teams 1 to 15, I've also tried to explain why my projections are higher or lower than those totals.

Let's get to it, starting with the defending champions. Then we'll look into who could emerge in a wide-open Eastern Conference and who might plummet down in the standings this season.

Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL |